Monday, March 8, 2010

"WORKIN' NINE TO FIVE - WHAT A WAY TO MAKE A LIVIN'..." Dolly Parton.

...But full time employment is nothing to gripe about these days - last week's Jobs Report showed that there are millions of people who would love to be working full time...or even working at all. The labor market continues to struggle, though it has shown improvement from its worst levels.
As you can see in the chart below, the Jobs Report for February showed 36,000 jobs lost in February, which was better than the 68,000+ job losses that were expected. Adding to the positive tone of the report were upward revisions to the prior two month's reports showing 35,000 fewer jobs lost.  However - helping the numbers were 15,000 temporary census worker hires made by the government. Without these, actual job losses would have exceeded 50,000 for February.

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Chart: Nonfarm Payrolls
Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.7%, better than expectations of a rise to 9.8%. But a deeper look beyond the headlines of the report showed what many consider to be the Real Unemployment Rate to be at 16.8%, a rise from last month's 16.5%.
This rate includes both discouraged workers - those who are no longer seeking work at this time - and those who are working part-time that would rather be "workin' nine to five" with full time employment, but are forced to accept part time out of necessity to earn whatever they can. And just last month, another nearly 500,000 people accepted part time work, citing economic reasons for doing so.
In related news, Productivity rose by 6.9% during the Fourth quarter of 2009, up from the previous reading of 6.2%.  This is an encouraging report, because during an economic recovery, it is normal to see a pick up in productivity before seeing fresh job creations.  Think about it - companies may start to see their business pick up, but before making the commitment of hiring new workers, they will squeeze more productivity out of their present staff. Job creations may be coming - but it appears that the labor market recovery will be slow going.