THEY SAY THAT MARCH COMES IN LIKE A LION AND GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB...

... But this year, the exact reverse is true when it comes to home loan rates - for quite a few reasons, including the end of the Federal Reserve acting as a large buyer of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The "demand" created by their fifteen-month program has helped Bond prices stay high and home loan rates stay low. 

But the Fed's MBS purchase program will end on March 31st. The Fed has confirmed this several times, including during last week's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. What's more, the Fed will likely change sides entirely, and actually become a seller of MBS, since their balance sheet hangs heavy with MBS holdings. However, once the Fed begins selling MBS and puts more supply into the market - at the same time as entirely removing their past demand as buyers - this will pressure Bond prices lower and push home loan rates higher. 

If you or someone you know would like to learn more about how you can take advantage of today's low-rate environment, or the Homebuyer Tax Credit which is due to expire on April 30 (see the below View article for more details), just call or email me. Additionally, consider forwarding this issue to a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who might benefit from the information. 

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Chart: Gross Domestic Product
In other news, the final reading on 2009's Fourth Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) roared in at 5.6%. While this was the best quarterly performance in six years, the economy shrank 2.4% during 2009, the worst single-year performance since 1946.

However, last week's housing news arrived with a bit of a whimper. While Existing Home Sales for February were reported in line with expectations, the inventory number swelled to the highest inventory level since last August. In addition, New Home Sales fell slightly in February - the fourth straight monthly drop - to yet another record low. On the new construction front - this may be due in part to buyers feeling a new home purchase may not close in time to take advantage of the Homebuyers Tax Credit before it expires on April 30th...but the bottom line is that the real fix for housing will depend on a stronger labor market.

Weak auction results and the approaching end of the Fed's MBS purchase program contributed to a volatile week in the markets, causing Bonds to fall below important technical levels. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week worse than where they began.