So why are these animal terms used to describe action in the Stock market anyways? The terms "Bull" and "Bear" are used because of the way those animals attack. Bulls attack using an upward thrusting motion with their horns, and Bears attack by moving their powerful claws in a downward motion. So an upward market is termed a Bull market, while a downward market is called a Bear market.
Last week, Stocks saw a sharp thrust downward, with prices down more than 10% from their peak. But that doesn't mean it's a Bear market just yet. Instead, the drop can be seen as a "correction", if prices recover and resume their uptrend. A correction can be quite healthy, and help a Bull market sustain its strength. But here's the trick: if the market drops 20% from its peak, it's officially considered a Bear market. That means every Bear market was once potentially just a correction. And so the debate rages on.
Is this a good time to buy - because you believe it's a correction and prices will move much higher? Or is this a time to sell, before the correction turns into a Bear market? The answer should become clearer over the next few days, as the market's direction takes hold.
Waiting in the wings are Bond prices and home loan rates... A Bear market could help Bond prices and home loan rates improve a bit more, as some of the money from Stock sales finds its way into the Bond market, including Mortgage Bonds. On the other hand, a correction back to a Bull market will be at the expense of some of the recent improvements that Bonds and home loan rates have enjoyed.
The reality is, Mortgage Bonds have looked a lot like a lottery winner recently, since Bond prices really should be much lower, and home loan rates much higher. But Mortgage Bonds are catching every lucky break - from the situation in Greece...to the declining Euro...to the correction in the Stock market.
It's all going in the favor of Mortgage Bonds...for now. But the Bond market's good fortune may not last very long - so be sure to give me a call if I can help explain the current rate situation, and how it might benefit you.
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BULL MARKETS THRUST UPWARD...WHILE BEAR MARKETS SWIPE DOWNWARD
Despite the sharp sell-off in Stocks, the markets did receive some good news last week on the inflation front. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported lower than expectations for the month of April, and the more closely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to report the first month-over-month decline since March of 2009. And when volatile food and energy prices were removed from the equation, the annual Core index came in at its lowest level since January 1966. Those numbers appear to show that inflation is subdued - and with oil prices significantly lower from where they were a few weeks ago, there will even be more downward pressure on headline inflation in the next report.
But the reality is that inflation will eventually begin to rear its ugly head - and once that happens, inflation can accelerate rather quickly. China recently reported a spike in inflation - and last week, the UK saw surprisingly higher inflation numbers being reported as well. So the Fed - and the markets - will have to continue to keep close tabs on inflation in the US.
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