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Chart: Post World War II Recessions
Bond prices and home loan rates responded poorly to the Treasury auctions of last week, as the Treasury instruments being auctioned off are in direct competition with Mortgage Backed Securities...and the continual record amounts of supply hitting the market requires record amounts of buying to take place as well. And remember - the Federal Reserve is winding down their Mortgage Backed Security purchasing program, so as they stretch out and ration their remaining purchases through the first quarter of next year, the reduced amount of their buying just adds to the problem.
And as with any item, when there is lots of supply and diminishing demand - Economics 101 tells us that the price of that item will subsequently go down. So as Bond prices go down, home loan rates go up - and last week saw home loan rates increase by at least .125% across the board.
Also adding to selling pressure on Bonds in the latter part of last week were several bits of good economic news. First, the Retail Sales Report for November was better than expected, marking the third monthly increase over the past four months. It appears that lower prices and good deals are helping to spur some buying activity, though it remains to be seen how this will impact retailers' bottom lines. Consumer Sentiment was also reported quite a bit better than expected.