And that's exactly what the Fed did last week at their regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But just what did they decide...and what do their decisions mean for home loan rates?
The Fed said they are going to ration out the remaining commitment of Mortgage Backed Security purchases through the first quarter of 2010. There will be no additional buying, but instead, a longer weaning off of the program. There was some speculation about the Fed increasing the amount of buying above the $1.25T committed to, and last week's statement is the Fed's nice way of saying "no." They will not be buying more in quantity, but what they will do is attempt to provide a smoother transition to normal market conditions.
It is a given that once the Fed ceases its purchases, that interest rates will climb significantly higher...most likely back above the 6% area. So instead of a hard transition with a large bump in rates, the Fed is attempting to allow rates to gradually rise. This means that waiting to purchase or refinance will very likely mean a higher interest rate.
Their decision also means that the Fed's remaining purchases will all be lower in quantity, as the remaining allotment for purchases will be spread over a longer period of time - and additionally, will not necessarily be spread out as evenly as their past purchases - which could lead to more volatility for rates in the near term.
In other news, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales were reported slightly less than expected, but both reports continue to show signs of an improving housing market. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell to its lowest inventory level since April 2007, while the inventory of unsold new homes dropped to its lowest level since January 2007. While some of the decline in new home inventory may be due to builders constructing fewer homes - these reports indicate that the housing market is indeed showing signs of life.
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