Thursday, February 17, 2011

"Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble, and if I stay there will be double!" - The Clash



The unrest in Egypt has been boiling for the past few weeks, as protestors took to the streets and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak contemplated whether to stay in power... or step down. 

Monday, February 7, 2011

"Bad news goes about in clogs, good news in stockinged feet." Welsh Proverb.

And there was certainly both good and bad news in last week’s Jobs Report. Here’s what we saw...and what this means for home loan rates. 

The Labor Department reported that just 36,000 jobs were created in January, with only 50,000 jobs created in the Private sector, much lower than the numbers anticipated. However, there were upward revisions to both November and December, which added another 40,000 jobs than previously reported. 

 
But that’s not the only bit of good news in the report. The Unemployment Rate fell to 9%, down from 9.4% last month, rather than increasing as had been expected. In addition, the U6 or "real" rate of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those who have accepted part-time employment for economic reasons, fell to 16.1%, from the previous month of 16.7%...and reflects the lowest level since April 2009!

So what does all of this mean when it comes to home loan rates?

It’s important to remember two things:

First, the Fed’s goals for their current Quantitative Easing policy (dubbed QE2) where $600 Billion is being injected into the economy are to (1) boost Stock prices, (2) create inflation, and (3) lower the unemployment rate.
Second, while these goals are designed to stimulate our economy and keep our recovery moving forward, they are also unfriendly to Bonds and home loan rates. 

In recent weeks, we’ve seen evidence of all three goals: Stocks been improving, the unemployment rate has declined, and we've seen an increase in global unrest of late, not just in Egypt, but in other parts of the world as well... and much of this centers around runaway inflation in commodities and food. 

This means that the old trading saying, "Don't Fight the Fed" is still ringing true. If the Fed wants to accomplish its three QE2 goals at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates, they probably will.

Monday, January 31, 2011

"A house is not a home unless it contains food and fire for the mind as well as the body." - Benjamin Franklin.

Last week, the housing market received some food and fire for the mind, but not everyone was at home with the news. 

 
First, the good news. The housing market received a serving of good news last week, as New Home Sales reportedly rose 17.5% in December to come in better than expectations.

Monday, January 24, 2011

"Bet your bottom Dollar?" These days the more appropriate question is: Where is the bottom of the Dollar?

Let’s take a look at why... and what this could mean for home loan rates!

1. Some of the Dollar’s drop is attributed to the recent strength in the Euro, which has gotten a boost from some positive stories of late, like Spain and Portugal's ability to sell debt in the Bond market without crisis. But the question is...have Europe's problems gone away? No - there will be more problems ahead for the region and as they emerge, we should see a reversal in the Euro's strength along with improvement in the US Dollar.

2. Another reason for the Dollar's weakness is the Fed’s Quantitative Easing

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Tax Deadline Extended! But What If You Need More Time?

This year, instead of your tax filing being due on Friday, April 15, you’ll have a few extra days to complete and file your taxes. That means your tax filing isn’t due until Monday, April 18, 2011.

The three extra days have been added because of Emancipation Day, which is a little-known Washington, D.C. holiday that celebrates the freeing of slaves in the district. The holiday actually falls on Saturday, April 16 this year, but will officially be observed on Friday, April 15. As a result, the IRS pushed the filing deadline to Monday, April 18 - since the tax code states that filing deadlines can’t fall on Saturdays, Sundays or holidays.

Still Need More Time?
If you need more time to file your taxes, you can submit Form 4868 for a six-month extension. You can learn more about extensions on the IRS website.

Problems Paying?
But what do you do if you’ve completed your tax returns

"Whistle while you work." Snow White.

That’s something more people have been able to do lately, as the labor market continues to steadily improve. Here’s what December’s Jobs Report showed... and what it means for home loan rates. 

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

The top 5 hits last week that Traders and Bond investors appeared to be singing... and why.

"Wild thing! You make my heart sing!" - By The Troggs. Traders found themselves singing one minute only to be screaming the next, as Bonds saw huge swings up and down of 100 basis points on multiple days last week.


Remember, home loan rates are based on Mortgage Bond prices, so huge swings in Bonds causes home loan rates to shift as well. This underscores why it’s so important to work with a knowledgeable professional who understands how interconnected the market is and can help homeowners lock in at the most opportune times.

To help make sense of the volatility, here’s a montage of the top 5 hits last week that Traders and Bond investors appeared to be singing... and why.