Rates May Be Headed Up Soon...But Why?

You've heard a lot over the last several months about historically low home loan rates...but lately, you've probably been hearing the buzz that interest rates may be heading up in the near future, due in part to the Fed ending their purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities.
All of this begs the question: How and why do rates move...and what is happening right now?
The answer involves a number of factors and can seem complex. But it doesn't have to be!
To help you understand how interest rates move, take a look at this easy to understand video. You'll learn what the Fed has been doing to keep rates low, as well as the connection between interest rates and Mortgage Backed Securities.
Take a look at the following video now for an easy explanation:

"OPINION HAS CAUSED MORE TROUBLE ON THIS LITTLE EARTH THAN PLAGUES..." Voltaire.

And lately, there have been a lot of opinions about inflation being voiced from Fed officials, respected economists, and the media. But what does all this talk really mean for our economy and home loan rates? Here's what you need to know.
On Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the prices US consumers pay, came in lower than expected for January. The chart below shows the year-over-year headline CPI at 2.6%, below expectations of 2.8%.  What's more, when volatile food and energy are removed from the equation, the "Core" Consumer Price Index was actually negative - and the last time that happened was 28 years ago.

A Seller’s Market?

A Seller’s Market?

 Hard to believe, but many homes drawing multiple offers again as listing shortages continue

My how things have changed in just one year! A year ago at this time, many homes were languishing on the market as buyers stayed on the sidelines, worrying about their jobs, the sharp decline in their 401k accounts, and whether housing prices would ever rise again. Today, many of those buyers have swallowed their fears and are out in force once again, spurred by an improving economy, a solid recovery in the financial markets, and federal home buyer tax credits that will expire this spring.

Keeping Your Home Safe from Water Damage

Preventing water damage in your home is important at any time of year, but particularly in the winter when the cold weather can wreak havoc on plumbing. Here are some tips to make sure your water bill is as low as it should be...and that your home is as safe and dry as it needs to be:

"IT AIN'T OVER TIL IT'S OVER." Yogi Berra.

And whether you find those words deeply wise or simply puzzling...The Fed has told us repeatedly that their massive purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities is just about over - and this translates to home loan rates rising in the near future. As you can see in the chart below, the amounts of Mortgage Backed Securities the Fed is purchasing are slowly dwindling, as the program is set to wrap up by March 31st, and are clearly trying to ration out the remaining portion. Last week, the Fed purchased $11 Billion in Mortgage Backed Securities, which leaves them with $66 Billion to spend out of their original $1.25 Trillion allotment. So about 95% of the total has already been spent and has purchased about 3 out of every 4 home loans during the past year. When such a large buyer leaves the market, it is very likely that prices will worsen.

HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT DEADLINE QUICKLY APPROACHING

With only three months until the new $8,000 first-time homebuyer and the $6,500 existing home buyer federal tax credits are set to expire, time is running out on an opportunity that buyers and sellers may not see again. The tax credit, which was originally created in mid 2008, then expanded in January 2009 and extended again this past November, was only designed to be a short-term incentive to drive more buyers into the housing market.That’s why many people in Congress are saying that, come April 30, 2010 when the credit expires, “That is it!”

"BOTH OPTIMISTS AND PESSIMISTS CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SOCIETY. THE OPTIMIST INVENTS THE AIRPLANE, AND THE PESSIMIST - THE PARACHUTE." G.B. Stern

And last week's Jobs Report had something for both optimists and pessimists, as the numbers were both good and bad...depending on which survey you looked at, and what numbers you focused on.

First, the headline numbers: The Labor Department reported that there were 20,000 jobs lost in January, which was worse than expectations of 15,000 jobs gained. However, the Unemployment Rate came in lower at 9.7%, down from last month's read of 10.0%. But what do these numbers actually tell us?

"THE NINE MOST TERRIFYING WORDS IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ARE: `I'M FROM THE GOVERNMENT, AND I'M HERE TO HELP.`" Ronald Reagan.

And regardless of if those words do indeed terrify you or perhaps give you confidence, the government held center stage last week, with a pivotal Federal Reserve Board Policy Statement, President Obama's first State of the Union address, and Ben Bernanke's confirmation for another term as Fed Chairman.

First, let's start with the Federal Reserve Board, who on the heels of their most recent meeting reiterated their important line, "rates will remain low for an extended period" in their Policy Statement. This tells us that the "carry trade" which has pushed Stocks, Commodities and even Bonds higher may continue, as the driving force of this trade - low interest rates - will likely provide a tailwind. This piece of the Statement was good news for Bonds and home loan rates. However, this was offset by further confirmation that the Fed's Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will indeed end March 31st, 2010. This was bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, and overrode the "extended period" statement in terms of Bond market and home loan rate action.

Then on Wednesday evening, President Obama delivered his first official State of the Union address, and just like in his initial post-election speech, a big theme was job creation.