Monday, January 25, 2010

"If you are losing a tug-of-war with a tiger, give him the rope before he gets to your arm. You can always buy a new rope." Max Gunther.

Such a sweet sentiment...but definitely not one that the markets adopted this week, as both Stocks and Bonds battled back and forth near key technical levels.

The markets were closed on Monday in honor of the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, but then the Bulls and the Bears in the Bond market spent the first part of the week pushing and pulling Bond prices above and below their 200-Day Moving Average. This level is important because it can often set the stage for price direction for an extended period of time. Bonds were finally able to break above this important level, which was good news for home loan rates.

Monday, January 11, 2010

"THERE ARE NO SECRETS IN LIFE, JUST HIDDEN TRUTHS THAT LIE BENEATH THE SURFACE." From the Showtime TV hit, "Dexter".

The highly anticipated Jobs Report arrived last Friday morning, showing 85,000 jobs lost during December...and while this was a bit worse than expected, the report also carried some good news, in that the prior month's revisions showed that November actually had a final tabulation of job gains for the month, for the first time since December 2007. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 10%. While this all seems to indicate some level of improvement in the labor market - you do have to look beneath the surface to clearly understand the present realities for the labor market.

Monday, January 4, 2010

"We will open the book. Its pages are blank. We are going to put words on them ourselves.

The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year's Day." Edith Lovejoy Pierce. And as we begin a New Year, fresh with opportunity - here's what you need to know about the last week of 2009.

The holiday shortened week had some fireworks, and not just those ringing in the New Year. The Treasury Department auctioned a whopping $118 Billion in T-Notes last week, and the added supply helped bring on some volatility in Bonds. And although the financial markets in general have been quite volatile of late anyways, the potential for increased volatility is typically greater during a holiday week. This is because trading volume levels decrease, and with fewer traders and investors pushing transactions, it opens the door for exacerbated market moves, as one large trade can cause prices to rise or fall more sharply.