"THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS..."

Or so the famous saying goes. And when it comes to really understanding the various reports and events unfolding in the economy, it's important to take a look at the details - not just the headlines. Here's what you need to know.

On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, unexpectedly fell due to a drop in energy prices. While that seems like good news on the surface, keep in mind that next month's number could climb higher again, as oil and natural gas have both been on a tear higher lately.

In housing news, Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in a bit below expectations, but this may be a sign that builders are exercising some caution - particularly in the face of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers that is presently set to expire on November 30th. Existing Home Sales came in better than expected - and a whopping 45% of those homes were sold to first time homebuyers - rushing to move in on that credit. Recent studies have shown that many who qualify for this tax credit aren't even aware of it...so please let me know if you or someone you know needs more information - the clock is ticking!

Additionally, the level of existing homes inventory shrunk to a 7.8 month supply, down from a recent high of 10.1 months in April.

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Chart: Existing Home Sales (Supply in Months)

In other news, 3rd quarter earnings season continues, where companies report their status as of the end of September. While many companies are beating expectations, it's important to realize that many of those companies achieved better earnings by cost cutting and layoffs, not from increased sales. This is a big disconnect between Wall Street and "Main Street". Stocks are rocketing higher based on these "positive" reports, but the cost cutting and job cutting measures can only go so far...you can't simultaneously grow the ranks of unemployment - and then grow your business, hoping for increased sales to those same people who are without jobs.

Last week's Jobless Claims numbers seem to confirm this as Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected. In addition, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since March, but this is likely the result of people's unemployment benefits expiring, without them having been able to find jobs.

Also worth noting is the news that ratings agency Moody's lead analyst, Steven Hess, said that the US needs to cut its deficit or it could lose its "AAA" rating in the next 3 to 4 years, which we have maintained since 1917! Think of all we've been through - two World Wars, the Depression, three Wall Street collapses and major terrorist attacks...yet our credit quality has maintained that AAA rating, allowing us to issue debt at the most favorable rates. Hess went on to say that if the US doesn't "get the deficit down in the next 3-4 years to a sustainable level, then the rating will be in jeopardy." And just like on a mortgage when the credit rating gets reduced, interest rates move higher. This will definitely be something we'll keep an eye on in the months ahead.

"THE HEAT IS ON." Glenn Frey.

While cooler temperatures are beginning to descend on many parts of the country, Bonds and home loan rates are feeling the heat and pressure from several fronts. Here are some details...along with why it's important to act soon to take advantage of current home loan rates, as they may never be seen again.

Last week, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported higher than expected, indicating that inflationary forces may already be underway. Remember, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return that a Bond provides - therefore, inflation is harmful to Bonds and home loan rates. Just the hint of inflation can cause home loan rates to worsen, which is what we saw last week.

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Chart: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

And here's a very interesting and important note - when looking at these CPI numbers, it is important to understand the effect that the "Cash for Clunkers" program had on this index. The Cash for Clunkers program was very "creatively" accounted for as a reduction in the sales price of automobiles, which had to have a dramatic effect on lowering the CPI that was reported. Imagine how much higher CPI would have been had this "creativity" not been used. As even more inflationary fears creep into the economy, home loan rates will continue to rise.

Also adding pressure to Bonds and home loan rates is the Fed's plan to ration out their remaining purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities. The Fed has purchased around $950B year-to-date out of the $1.25T allotted for the program, which is now set to expire March 31, 2010. This means the Fed will be averaging about $14B a week in purchases, a lot less than $25B or so they had been doing up until recently. And anytime demand for an item slows down...including Mortgage Backed Securities...the price goes down. And in this case, it means that home loan rates will move higher.

The bottom line is that the heat is on...and home loan rates are starting to rise already. While home loan rates are still incredibly low, it is clear this won't last much longer - and we may not see rates at these levels again in our lifetimes. Give me a call if you want to discuss your own situation, or if you have a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who might benefit from some information.

In other news, Retail Sales for September fell by 1.5% - and while the numbers were better than expected, they are still dismal at best. In addition, the flood of pre-holiday sales and layaway options that are already hitting - remember, it's still mid-October - also suggests a lack of pricing power for retailers. Stock earnings season continued with some mixed news: There were reasonably strong earnings reports from Intel and JPMorgan Chase, while there were weaker than expected reports from Johnson & Johnson, General Electric and IBM. Bank of America also posted its first loss for the year.

"LISTEN TO WHAT THE MAN SAID."

And those aren't just the words from Paul McCartney's hit song of the same title...they're also words of advice for anyone who's considering buying a home or refinancing. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that as the economy heals, the Fed will be very vigilant to protect against inflation. While inflation is not a problem at present...it will most certainly become a problem down the road. So why does this matter if you are considering purchasing or refinancing? Because inflation is the arch-enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and just the knowledge of it coming has been causing both Bonds and home loan rates to worsen in recent days. Along with the fear of inflation, the Fed's purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities is already slowing down, with the end of their buying in sight - and the reduced demand for these Bonds is also driving home loan rates higher.

Bottom line: home loan rates are already on the rise, and we won't likely see these low historic levels again.

Interest rates are still very near historic lows - George Washington couldn't have gotten a better interest rate - and the opportunity these low rates present is huge for homebuyers or people looking to refinance. If we haven't talked recently about your own home loan situation - or if you have a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who needs advice - please call or send me an email. There's no time to waste.

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On the topic of inflation - Gold has been on a tear higher of late, reaching a record high of $1048 an ounce. Remember that Gold is seen as a "safe harbor" or hedge against a falling Dollar and inflation - as Gold is not likely to lose much value in periods of rising prices. Again, fears of future inflation are pervasive, particularly in light of the massive economic stimulus that has been injected into the US economy...and inflation will drive home loan rates higher. The latest spike in Gold is more likely attributable to the Dollar's recent decline, but both factors are somewhat at play.

Also last week, the Initial Jobless Claims Report came in better than expected. According to the report, 521,000 new applications for unemployment benefits were received. That number was lower than the 540,000 that were expected, and marked the fewest number of new claims since the first week in January. However, that good news must be tempered by a look at the big picture...the reality is that despite a better-than-expected number, more than half a million people per week are still applying for new unemployment benefits. That's a sign that the labor market is still very weak. In fact, just last week former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also commented that he sees unemployment rising beyond 10%.

"WORK, WORK, WORK...IT'S A LABOR OF LOVE."

"WORK, WORK, WORK...IT'S A LABOR OF LOVE." The words to Sammy Kershaw's country song sound pretty good right now to a number of Americans...much better, in fact, than the recent employment numbers do.

Last week, the Labor Department's Jobs Report didn't show much love for US workers. As you can see in the chart below, the Labor Department reported 263,000 jobs lost in September, which was quite a bit worse than expectations. Compounding the bad news was an up-tick in the unemployment rate to 9.8% as well as downward revisions to prior Jobs Reports, showing an additional 13,000 jobs lost in July and August.

Also within the Jobs Report were declines in the Average Workweek and in Average Hourly Earnings, both of which came in below expectations. The shortening of the Average Workweek may be telling us that the amount of people forced to accept part time work is growing. The decline in the Average Hourly Earnings underscores the weakness in the labor market, as it indicates that companies have no pressure to raise wages...particularly with unemployment near 10%. An improvement in Hourly Earnings will likely give us the first sign of labor recovery, so this will be important to watch in upcoming Jobs Reports.

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Chart: Jobs Report for September

Personal Spending was also reported last week, indicating that spending rose in August at its fastest monthly pace in almost 8 years! And while the news appears to be good for the economy, we have to take it with a grain of salt, since a large part of that spending was the result of the "Cash for Clunkers" vehicle purchasing incentive program, which is no longer in effect.

Finally, the housing industry received some good news last week, as Pending Home Sales were up significantly at 6.4%, which was far above expectations. Some of the increase is likely due to folks working fast to take advantage of the $8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which is currently set to expire on November 30th...and be sure to ask me about this, if you or any of your friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers could benefit from this great incentive. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index also came out last week with news that home prices fell less than expected. The report, which looks at the 20 largest cities, also showed that only 2 cities (Las Vegas and Seattle) experienced price declines when compared to the previous month. Overall, the numbers appear to indicate that the worst of the housing price declines may be behind us.